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The Fed Is Being Priced for a Rate Hike. A Jobs Report That Went Backwards Is What Cut the Odds
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Macro
Fed Beige Book: The general outlook for the coming months was positive, but sentiment was mixed across sectors, with contacts reporting heightened uncertainty surrounding the effects of higher energy prices.
Macro
Fed Beige Book: Economic activity increased modestly since early July.
Macro
Fed Beige Book: Prices increased moderately in eight districts, with two districts reporting modest increases, one slight increase, and one robust increase.
Equities
According to the WSJ, new AI models for cybersecurity are being developed by Nvidia (NVDA) and CrowdStrike (CRWD). Mkt cap ~$5.3T
Equity read-through Probabilistic High confidence PANW
PANWPotential headwind
Cortex competes directly with Falcon across endpoint security, SOC automation, and enterprise cyber-platform consolidation.
Geopolitics
High
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Semiconductor tariffs are being considered
Central Banks
BOJ Ueda: FX movements are being observed as contributors to upward price risks
Central Banks
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Market tails are being truncated
Equities
Muse voice transcription is being launched by Meta (META) Superintelligence labs. Mkt cap ~$1.5T
Geopolitics
High
U.S. officials claim that the Chinese shipping firm COSCO uses concealed devices on its ships to collect intelligence for Beijing.
Geopolitics
High
A tanker reported being struck by three unknown projectiles while leaving the Strait of Hormuz, according to UKMTO.
Geopolitics
Truth Social
US President Trump Via Truth Social: I just had a GREAT and very interesting meeting with my Hollywood Ambassador and Movie Legend, Jon Voight! He is a fantastic man who loves our Country, and feels strongly about the Motion Picture and Television Industry. He hates what’s happened to it! It is being dissipated in its entirety. It has moved to Canada, and other Countries, with very little work being done anymore in the United States. Hollywood is a Complete and Total Disaster! Despite the name, it is getting very little work. There is no incentive to be there, and it is hurting California very badly. Jon, and many others in the Industry, are suggesting we do Federal Tax Incentives in order to Make our Movie and Television Production Business GREAT AGAIN, perhaps GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE! The amount of money spent on Tax Incentives will be made up tenfold by the money pouring into the Treasury’s coffers. Meetings are being set up with the Leaders of both Parties in order to get this done. It should be Bipartisan, especially since so much money is being lost in California, and other largely Blue States. I am going to suggest that Republicans and Democrats get together, and immediately craft Legislation to save the Movie, Television, and Entertainment Business in America. Congress should approve, immediately, a Federal Production Incentive to create Entertainment Jobs in America. It can be done quickly, accurately, efficiently and, importantly, will benefit ALL of America. What we watch on the Silver Screen should be made in what was once the Movie and Motion Picture Capital of the World. Let’s get this done! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Geopolitics
Truth Social
US President Trump Via Truth Social: I am pleased to report that the United States Supreme Court has just ruled in favor of the Ballroom/Military Complex being built without any further contingency, doubt, or threat. We are living in the Golden Age of America, and this Building will be one of the Greatest ever constructed in Washington, D.C. When completed in the Summer of 2028, the magnificent Ballroom and Military Complex will be something that the entire Country is very proud of. The Project, despite the baseless lawsuit brought by the so-called National Trust for Historic Preservation of the United States, which is not in any way affiliated with the United States Government, is under budget and ahead of schedule. The Ballroom is totally funded by Great Patriots and Corporations and, therefore, is a Gift — At no cost to the American Taxpayer. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Geopolitics
Truth Social
US President Trump Via Truth Social: The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can’t believe it is happening! President DJT
Equities