The crude complex sold off amid bearish headlines. Benchmarks sold off aggressively through the US afternoon, with WTI and Brent hitting troughs of USD 77.78/bbl and 80.67/bbl, respectively, after Fox reported that mediators say the US and Iran are close to reviving the MoU, albeit citing an earlier Times of Israel article. The outlet, citing sources, said that negotiators from Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar have been working on clarifying how the Strait of Hormuz will operate, and the White House was waiting to decide after Trump met with Netanyahu on Tuesday. Following this, Iran reportedly said it hasn't sought US talks in the past 16-17 days, and separate reports said Iran has no plans to negotiate with the US. Prior to all this, in the EU morning the crude complex saw pressure on two separate headlines: 1) Oman is said to have presented to Iran a proposal for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with "voluntary fees"; 2) Iran demonstrating 'flexibility' over Hormuz Strait operations.

Through the US afternoon, there was a slew of remarks, and as Trump met both Netanyahu and Zelensky, albeit separately. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said Tehran has proposed to Muscat that Iran manage one-way shipping transit on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman would be part of the opposite direction. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that China has held direct negotiations with Yemen’s Houthi movement to ensure safe passage for its oil tankers through the southern Red Sea.

On the supply footing, OPEC+ reportedly expects to hold 2026 output steady after September. Ahead, weekly private inventory data is afterhours.

Crude prices entered the week significantly lower following a weekend lacking further escalation between the US and Iran. The NYT reported that private deliberations in the Trump admin have focused on the Pentagon’s shrinking inventory of Patriot interceptors and other air defences. The US paused strikes on Iran starting from Saturday after 13 consecutive days of strikes, with Iran seemingly pausing strikes as well. However, the Houthis have still shown frustration with the Saudis. Over the weekend, the Houthis said on Sunday that they attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours and are enforcing maritime blockade measures against vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the Iran-backed militia took responsibility for today's attacks on the huge Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia.

In the US afternoon, Trump said we are having deep talks with Iran, N12 reports; "I'm not giving much time to negotiations - either it will move quickly, or it won't happen at all". However, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said earlier today that they have not requested the resumption of talks with the US.

As it stands, it is a tentative ceasefire, lacking a formal declaration from both sides, leaving the situation still very volatile. While Axios reported that regional sources said negotiations between Oman and Iran have made progress, no agreement has been reached on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI (U6) and Brent (V6) traded between 81.99-86.20 and 84.65-88.95, respectively.